Inflation Throwing Strikes, Ben May Hike
"BASEBALL BEEN BERRY, BERRY GOOD TO ME..." Garrett Morris as Chico Escuela on Saturday Night Live And as the first pitch of the 2007 baseball season is thrown, Bond Players could be saying the same thing about Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke. Big Ben halted the long string of rate hikes even though inflation is a bit higher than the Fed wants, so Ben has "played ball" by patiently waiting for inflation to settle down to the desired range between 1% - 2%. But while "Ben-Ball" has been "berry berry" good to bonds so far, all that may change after last week's economic data.
The Fed closely watches the rate of inflation and uses the Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Index as its favorite gauge. And last week the Fed was thrown a curve, as the PCE increased more than expected during February for the largest monthly spike since August. As previously mentioned, the Fed wants inflation no higher than 2%, and the annual rate of PCE just rose to 2.4% from the previous reading of 2.3%.
Also of note, the Personal Savings Rate remains negative at -1.2%. It appears that achieving a meaningful amount of savings for many Americans is as tough as hitting a pitch from Mariano Rivera. Mortgage Bonds worsened during the week, causing Home Loan Rates to increase modestly.
SLOWER BASE RUNNERS ARE NOT THE ONLY ONES CAUGHT STEALING - THE BIGGEST CREDIT CARD SCAM IN HISTORY WAS UNCOVERED - AND YOU COULD HOLD ONE OF THE 45 MILLION CREDIT CARD NUMBERS STOLEN. LEARN HOW TO PROTECT YOURSELF IN THIS WEEK'S MORTGAGE MARKET VIEW. |
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Next week's economic calendar has several reports in the lineup that could move the market, with the big hitter due up Friday by way of the high-impact Employment Report. The early estimates call for 140,000 new jobs to be created in March, which is up substantially from February's reported 97,000 new jobs. Any large surprise in the number of new jobs or any heavy revisions on previous reports could trigger a major move in bond prices and home loan rates.
Mortgage Bonds have been in a slump since the middle of March, causing home loan rates to trend slightly higher. But Bond prices are now resting near a floor of support at the 50-day Moving Average, as evidenced in the chart below. If this floor of support fails to hold, we could see Bond prices continue to drift lower still, which would further worsen home loan rates. A weak Employment Report should help Bonds rally and help home loan rates improve, but a strong jobs number may cause home loan rates to worsen...and could also signal that another Fed rate hike may be on deck.
Chart: Fannie Mae 5.5% Mortgage Bond (Friday Mar 30, 2007)
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The Mortgage Market View...  |
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Thanks for shopping at TJ Maxx...but your credit card info is now fair game.That's right, if you shopped at TJ Maxx over the past few years, your credit card may be one of the 45 million - yes 45 million - that was accessed and copied in the biggest data leak ever. The card info was used to make duplicate dummy cards...and those cards were used to buy gift cards at Wal-Mart and Sam's Club for $400 each, which is under the $500 threshold for showing identification. This is not the first time this has happened. You may recall the DSW Shoe security breach about a year earlier; and like Déjà vu, it's Déjà DSW all over again. And unfortunately, it's a good bet that something like this will happen yet again.
You might be saying it's a good thing you have that security code on the actual card to show that you have it in your possession...but the latest scam is designed especially to gain that information.
Scammers lure you into giving them the security code by impersonating themselves as employees of the credit card company, calling the cardholder, and acting as though fraud has already taken place in hopes that you will give up that precious three digit code. Here is how the call plays out.
The caller identifies himself by name, badge number, and states that the call is from the Security and Fraud Department of Visa or MasterCard. They use the news about TJ Maxx and asked if you have shopped there in the past 4 years...a decent chance you have and have also heard about the data leak.The caller explains that your card has been flagged for an unusual purchase pattern, he is calling to verify a charge that was made to your account (reads the account number to you), and asks if you made a purchase in the amount of $497.99 to a Marketing company in Arizona for an Anti-Telemarketing Device? When you respond "no" the caller states that a credit will be issued but to issue the credit the caller needs the security code (the three digit code from the back of the card) to process the credit. You innocently pull out the card; give the caller the security code, and minutes later are hit with a charge not a credit in the amount of $497.99. Even though the scammers have your account number, name, and some personal information, this information is not always enough to make purchases and the scammers need the security code.
Should you receive a call that is similar to the description above, take the following steps to protect your identity and your credit:
- Do not give the caller the security code.
- Ask for the caller's name and terminate the call.
- Call the credit card company immediately, but do not call the number the caller provides.
Additionally, here are a few extra steps you can take to protect your sixteen digit credit card number and personal information:
- Be aware of your surroundings when purchasing merchandise. If the individual behind you in line is crowding your space, cover your credit card information.
- Watch your card when individuals around you in public places have cell phones. Thieves can easily use a cell phone to take a snapshot of your credit card.
- Shred all credit card receipts. Many merchants issue a charge receipt with the full account number and your name.
- Don't leave credit card statements lying around the house or office, file or shred statements once paid as they contain all of the information for a thief to perform this scam.
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The material contained in this newsletter has been prepared by an independent third-party provider. The content is provided for use by real estate, financial services and other professionals only and is not intended for consumer distribution. The material provided is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment and/or mortgage advice. Although the material is deemed to be accurate and reliable, there is no guarantee it is not without errors. |